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With the recent dishonorable attacks on the Georgian Republic by Russia in recent weeks everyone is cheering the cease fire offered by the Republic of Georgia. Here is my opinion of this "cease fire". Do Not believe for one second that Russia will honor this agreement. Russia's intent is to rebuild the old Soviet Union. So when I heard that Russia agreed to the "cease fire" I realized that it gave them a chance to plot the conquest of Georgia while the world's attention is elsewhere and the Georgia military is off balance and here's why. One of the, if not the, most brilliant military stratigists in all of history is ancient Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu. In his book "The Art of War" he lays out 3 reason for either calling for or accepting a truce or cease fire and here they are. The first reason to call for or accept a truce or cease fire without total victory is mercy. In otherwords the enemy is being soundly defeated and it is merciful to allow them to surrender without annihilating the enemy. The second reason is political strife in the homeland, example: your countrymen are rioting and you need to deal with the rioters. The third reason is for plotting. An example of this is; your army has a chance to defeat your enemy, but you call for or accept a truce to throw your enemy off balance so you can plot his destruction. Now the question we need to ask ourselves is: what incentive does Russia have to either call for or accept a "cease fire" with Georgia? Which of these reasons are the truth? Well let's go through these reasons for Russian acceptance of the "cease fire" to see the true reason Russia stop its attack on Georgia. Reason one, mercy, this reason is why Georgia called for a "cease fire" because Georgia was getting their butts soundly defeated. So this is a plausible reason for Russia to accept the"cease fire". Reason two, political upheavals, is not the reason for the cease fire and here's why. The Georgian people are united behind their President and the Russian people are so screwed up because of their government that they wouldn't know the truth if it hit them. Reason three, plotting, is the most likely reason that Russia accepted the "cease fire" because while the attacks have stopped it gives Russia a chance to rearrange and move their military into more tactical superior positions thus giving them a chance to go for the total destruction of Georgia. The evidence of this is that while Russia has accepted the cease fire their miltary in Georgia is moving into tactical superior positions which can only mean that they don't intend to leave and are bound to conquer Georgia. This is why we must go back to the "trust but varify" policy that President Reagan started. That is why we must arm not only the Georgian military but also the Georgian people for the purpose of fighting off the Russian scourge in their country. For if we don't the alternative is unacceptable.
6 comments:
I refuse to believe there are only two reason's for a cease-fire. I am not suggesting this is true, I am only using it as an example: They could have signed the cease fire for fear the rest of the world would back Georgia. Just an example, not necessarily true, but it is another reason to sign a cease-fire.
You're right,I did not think of that. While it is true that I believe that there are two possible reasons Russia agreed to it (the cease fire). I must admit that it is also possible that Russia would do what's right and stop their attack on Georgia. Now that the ball is in Russia court, the question, is will they honor their agreement? or Will they attempt to reform the Soviet Union?
I do not think Georgia or Russia will honor the cease-fire for long. But I also have no idea if Russia's intentions are to reform the Soviet Union.
After watching a documentary on fox about this issue, I made up my mind about wht to think about the issue. What helped me make my decision was Putin's comments and proposed actions on Ukraine joining NATO. He claimed that if they were to join, he would have weapons pointed at them and the reason he gave was something to the extent of Ukraine being a threat to Russia. This idea seems ridiculous to me. It does seem that Russia wants to isolate itself from the rest of the world, which could potentially be dangerous.
I agree.
Now we get to see if world leaders have enough spine to confront putin. Or will they be cowards andd allow his bullying to continue?
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