ss_blog_claim=88887e159c197230d43e202786904fb3 Common Sense in Politics: Hurricane Ike (is it a repeat of 1900) continued

Monday, September 15, 2008

Hurricane Ike (is it a repeat of 1900) continued

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As I predicted in my last blog of Hurricane Ike, it hit Galveston right on the mark and the path it took was (with a couple of differences) identical to the path the 1900 Galveston Hurricane took. Now those reading this might ask, how did I accurately predict this path? The simple answer is that I was watching channels like the Weather Channel on September 8. I saw the map depicting Hurricane Ike and saw the location Ike hit in Cuba. First let me say that I am not an expert on hurricanes or a weatherman of any kind I'm just a layman. When I saw the weather map showing Ike's location and its projected path I started thinking I was seeing de' javu. I then asked myself : "Is this a repeat of 1900 or am I seeing a mirage of something that wasn't really there"? So I, hoping to disspell the de' javu feeling, looked Hurricane Ike and the Hurricane of 1900 up on the internet. While comparing the two paths I realized that I was seeing the exact de' javu that I had hoped would be proven false. In other-words the two paths, I was comparing, were basically identical. Everything from the location they ( the Hurricane of 1900 and Hurricane Ike) hit Cuba to the paths they took were identical. These two hurricanes took the exact same paths, made the same course corrections, and hit the same locations in Cuba. After seeing these comparisons I realized that I was seeing the perfect storm and a repeat of 1900. So on September 8 I predicted that Hurricane Ike would hit Galveston as a Cat. 4 with 135 MPH winds and would be worse than Katrina in terms of casualties and damage. So far the only part of my prediction that I am proud to be wrong is Cat. size. As far as death toll I am hoping to be wrong there too. So far I have been wrong on the death toll, but the last I heard they have not rescue or gotten to everyone who stayed yet. The reason I was wrong on the power of Ike was because they (Galveston) got lucky when a dry front hit the hurricane and weakened it just 2 days before landfall. Had that dry air not been there I believe the Hurricane Ike would have been as bad as, or worse than, I predicted. The lesson here is that to prevent major death and destruction everyone in disaster prone areas MUST be prepared and not count of the Government. So New York and Boston take note, you guys are due a hit by a major hurricane some time in the future so be prepared for it.

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